Well, I'm just now watching the debate and seeing how right my predictions were. Man, this was an exciting and surprisingly substantive debate. Alright, let's get down to each prediction.
1. Both candidates were indeed on time. Booyashaka. (1-0, right-wrong)
2. Bush definitely tried to break off the handshake first. Kerry held Bush's hand as Bush scurried away to his podium. (2-0)
3. Bush surprised me a bit and said that he himself is consistent rather than using the word "flip-flop" about Kerry. After the first five minutes, Bush said that Kerry had changed his position on Iraq many times. In the first five minutes, Bush still indirectly accused Kerry of being inconsistent, so I say I'm right. (3-0).
4. Kerry said that Bush's campaign had a word for people who change their minds, refering to Bush. Basically called him a flip-flopper, just like I said he would. (4-0).
5. Kerry called Bush's decision to go to war a "colossal error of judgment." He also said "wrong war at the wrong place at the wrong time." He also used the word "mistake." He said "wrong" 5 times at least, making me right 5 times. (5-0)
6. Bush pointed out Kerry's vote to give Bush II the authority to invade Iraq. He didn't refer to Kerry's prior service or votes, maybe because he was scared of Kerry talking about Bush's failure to complete his service in the National Guard. Still, Bush did discuss Kerry's voting record as something he "wasn't proud of," so I got this one right, too. (6-0)
7. Kerry said that Bush lacks the credibility to win the peace in Iraq by bringing in help from other nations. In other words, we need a change. (7-0)
8. Kerry talked specifically about Bush's failure to send troops with appropriate body armor, exactly as I said he would. Batting one thousand. (8-0)
9. Unlike most regular Americans, I was privy to the whispered exchange that took place as the two candidates shook hands at the beginning. Kerry said, "Hey, shortie." And Bush said, "Go fuck yourself." (9-0)
10. Kerry definitely had more zingers. My favorite was: "Bush has a four word plan for Iraq, 'more of the same." And of course this brilliant one near the end: "I've never wilted in my life." Bush, on the other hand kept repeating sorry 'zingers' like "mixed signals" and "wrong message to our troops," "good people are doing hard work," and "we're making progress." Kerry launched effective attacks on Bush AND managed to set the tone and control the terms of the debate. Bush didn't get him off message. Kerry made Bush respond -- Kerry was in control. Overall, Kerry scores a win. (10-0)
Right. Despite my perfect predictions, even I was surprised by some of the utterances these two came up with. First of all, I was surprised by the good and tough questions that Jim Lehrer came up with. And I was even more surprised to see the candidates actually address Jim's quesitons rather than turing around and giving their usual stump speech. They still did that, of course, but overall they were much more directly answering questions than I would have expected. I was also surprised to see North Korea and Iran become serious points of contention -- I thought Bush would try to bypass these two briar patches, but he went head-on.
I couldn't believe that Bush tried talking about Afghanistan as though it has been a successful mission. This is one of the biggest failures the American military has ever been involved with. Afghanistan is a disaster. It's a new low for Bush to try to sugar coat even that debacle. Kerry was effective at calling Bush on it, though. I also loved when Kerry pointed out that Bush said Saddam "attacked us, and we had to respond." Kerry said, "Saddam Hussein didn't attack us. Osama bin Laden did." And Bush diverted troops from looking for Osama to go after Saddam. Wrong choice. Wrong war. Wrong time.
I was surprised to see Bush blowing so much smoke up Iraqi "Prime Minister" Allawi's ass (he's actually a caretaker or interim prime minister). I was really surprised to see how repetitive Bush became. I thought he was a better debater than that, but the guy just didn't have anything else to say beyond his "on message" target one-liners, which he repeated way too many times. I was surprised at the talk about Iran and at the apparent agreement on nuclear proliferation as the #1 danger facing the US (I agree). I was surprised to see Kerry have extra time after he got his points across quickly. Kerry detailed his plans on Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, AND he talked about Bush's failings and he did it without going over time even once. Finally, I was also stunned to see Bush look so openly annoyed during Kerry's speeches. He should have been more courteous.
Here are things I should have predicted. I should have predicted that Kerry would use the words "my plan" at least 5 times. I should have predicted that Kerry would say "rush to war" a bunch of times. I should have predicted that both Kerry and Bush would both bring up the need to protect Israel, and that both would mention Israel by name. Both talked about reaching out to Arab peoples. Kerry mentioned Halliburton, twice, I think. And, the big one, Bush said "September 11th" in the first 10 seconds of his first speech. Obvious prediction. But, I limited myself to 10, so I didn't get all of them.
Kerry is very much in this race, folks. We'll be back with 10 more predictions for the next debate, so keep your browser pointed to eriklove.com.
1. Both candidates were indeed on time. Booyashaka. (1-0, right-wrong)
2. Bush definitely tried to break off the handshake first. Kerry held Bush's hand as Bush scurried away to his podium. (2-0)
3. Bush surprised me a bit and said that he himself is consistent rather than using the word "flip-flop" about Kerry. After the first five minutes, Bush said that Kerry had changed his position on Iraq many times. In the first five minutes, Bush still indirectly accused Kerry of being inconsistent, so I say I'm right. (3-0).
4. Kerry said that Bush's campaign had a word for people who change their minds, refering to Bush. Basically called him a flip-flopper, just like I said he would. (4-0).
5. Kerry called Bush's decision to go to war a "colossal error of judgment." He also said "wrong war at the wrong place at the wrong time." He also used the word "mistake." He said "wrong" 5 times at least, making me right 5 times. (5-0)
6. Bush pointed out Kerry's vote to give Bush II the authority to invade Iraq. He didn't refer to Kerry's prior service or votes, maybe because he was scared of Kerry talking about Bush's failure to complete his service in the National Guard. Still, Bush did discuss Kerry's voting record as something he "wasn't proud of," so I got this one right, too. (6-0)
7. Kerry said that Bush lacks the credibility to win the peace in Iraq by bringing in help from other nations. In other words, we need a change. (7-0)
8. Kerry talked specifically about Bush's failure to send troops with appropriate body armor, exactly as I said he would. Batting one thousand. (8-0)
9. Unlike most regular Americans, I was privy to the whispered exchange that took place as the two candidates shook hands at the beginning. Kerry said, "Hey, shortie." And Bush said, "Go fuck yourself." (9-0)
10. Kerry definitely had more zingers. My favorite was: "Bush has a four word plan for Iraq, 'more of the same." And of course this brilliant one near the end: "I've never wilted in my life." Bush, on the other hand kept repeating sorry 'zingers' like "mixed signals" and "wrong message to our troops," "good people are doing hard work," and "we're making progress." Kerry launched effective attacks on Bush AND managed to set the tone and control the terms of the debate. Bush didn't get him off message. Kerry made Bush respond -- Kerry was in control. Overall, Kerry scores a win. (10-0)
Right. Despite my perfect predictions, even I was surprised by some of the utterances these two came up with. First of all, I was surprised by the good and tough questions that Jim Lehrer came up with. And I was even more surprised to see the candidates actually address Jim's quesitons rather than turing around and giving their usual stump speech. They still did that, of course, but overall they were much more directly answering questions than I would have expected. I was also surprised to see North Korea and Iran become serious points of contention -- I thought Bush would try to bypass these two briar patches, but he went head-on.
I couldn't believe that Bush tried talking about Afghanistan as though it has been a successful mission. This is one of the biggest failures the American military has ever been involved with. Afghanistan is a disaster. It's a new low for Bush to try to sugar coat even that debacle. Kerry was effective at calling Bush on it, though. I also loved when Kerry pointed out that Bush said Saddam "attacked us, and we had to respond." Kerry said, "Saddam Hussein didn't attack us. Osama bin Laden did." And Bush diverted troops from looking for Osama to go after Saddam. Wrong choice. Wrong war. Wrong time.
I was surprised to see Bush blowing so much smoke up Iraqi "Prime Minister" Allawi's ass (he's actually a caretaker or interim prime minister). I was really surprised to see how repetitive Bush became. I thought he was a better debater than that, but the guy just didn't have anything else to say beyond his "on message" target one-liners, which he repeated way too many times. I was surprised at the talk about Iran and at the apparent agreement on nuclear proliferation as the #1 danger facing the US (I agree). I was surprised to see Kerry have extra time after he got his points across quickly. Kerry detailed his plans on Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, AND he talked about Bush's failings and he did it without going over time even once. Finally, I was also stunned to see Bush look so openly annoyed during Kerry's speeches. He should have been more courteous.
Here are things I should have predicted. I should have predicted that Kerry would use the words "my plan" at least 5 times. I should have predicted that Kerry would say "rush to war" a bunch of times. I should have predicted that both Kerry and Bush would both bring up the need to protect Israel, and that both would mention Israel by name. Both talked about reaching out to Arab peoples. Kerry mentioned Halliburton, twice, I think. And, the big one, Bush said "September 11th" in the first 10 seconds of his first speech. Obvious prediction. But, I limited myself to 10, so I didn't get all of them.
Kerry is very much in this race, folks. We'll be back with 10 more predictions for the next debate, so keep your browser pointed to eriklove.com.
Erik, great job in scoring your debate predictions. If only John Kerry were allowed to count the votes on Nov 2 in the same generous way you scored yourself, I'm sure the world would be a better place.
from http://blog.johnkerry.com/rapidresponse/
REVIEWS KEEP COMING IN:
CNN / GALLUP POLL ON WHO WON DEBATE
Kerry: 53
Bush: 37
CBS POLL ON WHO WON DEBATE:
Kerry: 44
Bush: 26
Tie: 30
ABC POLL ON WHO WON DEBATE:
Kerry: 45
Bush 36:
Tie: 17
Posted on October 1, 2004 at 12:03 AM
I'd like to thank the anonymous poster for this information, but to be clear, my predictions were actually scored by an outside observer. The editor of ENN, in fact, provided the official results. Again, look for 10 more 100% guaranteed predictions for this week's debate, coming up soon on the eriklove.com official blog...