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There's about twenty days left before the Israeli government begins its planned evacuation of all its llegal settlements in Gaza and a few in the West Bank. This is going to be huge.



What's the big deal? What are the settlements, anyway?

Israel gained control of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank of the Jordan River (including East Jerusalem) in the 1967 War. These territories were put under an Israeli military occupation. Usually, military occupations are presumed to be temporary situations (like the US presence in Iraq). Under military occupation, the Palestinians living in Gaza and the West Bank have severely limited lives. They are citizens of no state. They have no civil rights. They are subject to search and seizure at all times, and often are placed under 24-hour curfew. Simply traveling from home to work is often an adventure involving encounters with hostile Israeli soldiers. And this Israeli military occuaption has been anything but temporary -- it has continued without any sign of stopping since 1967 -- nearly 40 years. How could this be?

Some on the Israeli right wanted to ensure that Israel's control of the West Bank and Gaza became permenant. To make it more difficult for Israel to ever leave, they began setting up Jewish-Israeli only villiages all across the West Bank and Gaza landscape. The Israeli government has helped them, and as a result a large Israeli civilian population now lives in the occupied territories (all of this is explicitly against international law). These civilians have done everything they can to take land, and indeed nearly every hilltop in the West Bank now has an Israeli-only settlement on it. In addition, several settler-only highways have been built through the West Bank and Gaza to allow settlers to travel between their illegal homes and Israel proper without the need to cross any Palestinian cities or towns. The newest feature of the settlements has been the giant seperation wall slicing through the West Bank, seperating Palestinians from Palestinians and making life even more miserable for people in cities like Qalqiliya, which is now completely surrounded by a wall.

Most of the settlements are relatively luxurious, suburban-esque communities complete with fast food restaurants and houses with built-in garages. The settlers water their lawns and wash their cars while their Palestinian neighbors struggle to find water to drink or water their crops.

Israeli settlers routinely harass and indeed attack their Palestinian neighbors. In turn, Palestinians often launch attacks against the fortified and well-guarded settlements.

OK - long story short, the settlements are bad and cause lots of problems. The world is united in calling for their dismantling and a return of the land to the Palestinians, from whom it was taken in the first place.

That's why so much is being made of the planned withdrawal of all the settlements from Gaza -- scheduled to begin 20 days from now.

The plan has provoked massive and often violent protests from the Israeli right, but opinion polls show that a solid majority of Israelis support the plan. The plan has laid bare the stark divisions in Israeli society between hard-line rightists who want to annex all of historic Palestine, and the leftists who want to make peace with Israel's neighbors. The divisions in Palestinian society have also come to the fore recently, with violence erupting between rightists who want to do everything to reclaim all of historic Palestine (destroying Israel in the process) and leftists who want to make peace through negotiated compromise. The rightists on both sides have been driving the conflict for quite a while, and this disengagement is a challenge for all concerned.

Here's what to expect as the pullout begins.
  • It'll probably start a few days early.
First of all, don't be suprised if the pullout begins a few days early. The Israeli government wants to catch the settlers by surprise, so they'll probably move up the date a bit and just go as soon as they're ready. Why not just start now? Well, the Israeli government is preparing about 6 soldiers for every Israeli settler (one for each arm and leg, and two to guard against attack). With about 8,000 settlers, we're talking about a huge, huge army operation. While many settlers will leave willingly, the hard-core ones will lay down in their bathtubs, cradling infants, and will make the soldiers drag them out by force.

  • The images of settlers, including infants, will be hard to watch and will be all over US TV
So, expect some photos of pathetic settlers and even crying babies being forcibly removed from their homes. These heart-wrenching imanges are going to be a huge boost for the Israeli right. Remember that it was the settlers who asked for this -- they could have just lived in Israel proper and not in the occupied territories. They're the ones who stole land, and the pullout is just an attempt to return the land to the people who should have it -- the Palestinians. Also, remember that the US government has been asked for 2.2 Billion Dollars to help give these settlers a new, nice place to live in Israel proper. So, we're helping those crying babies with our tax dollars.

  • There will probably be attacks from some Palestinian groups during the disengagement, and we'll hear a lot about how ungrateful they are.
The Palestinian militant groups, who vastly outgun the Palestinian Authority (which is trying to keep them down), are going to try to make it look like they're forcing the Israelis out. They'll proabably also start to attack settlers in the West Bank, and they'll almost certainly try another of those horrific and deplorable suicide bombings in Israel proper. This violence will be used to rationalize a massive and disproportionate Israeli attack, probably with fighter jets and helicopter gunships. It will be a very hard week for Palestinian civilians, many of whom will die in the crossfire. As is usual, expect lots of images in the US media of Palestinians with guns, and very few of Palestinians suffering as the result of the huge Israeli attacks.
  • Expect Bush to make a statement about "painful compromise."
The US is hoping that this pullout will re-start peace talks, but so far the Israelis have refused to negotiate. They're calling this a unilateral disengagement, and have shown no sign of re-starting any negotiation to truly end the conflict. If Bush simply thanks the Israelis for their "painful step forward" and calls on the Palestinians to return by clamping down on terrorism, no progress will be made. Bush needs to prod the Israelis to finish what they started by sitting down at a negotiating table with the Palestinians.
  • Note that after the pullout, Israel will still control Gaza's borders, will not allow the reopening of the Gaza airport, and will keep soldiers stationed in Gaza maintaining what is essentially an open-air prison.
Remember that Gaza is surrounded by a well-guarded wall. That wall is not coming down, and Gaza will remain a virtual prison for its 2 million Palestinian inhabitants. There should have been a negoiation between Palestinians and Israelis about easing travel restrictions and loosening the grip of the Israeli army in Gaza, but instead the Israelis have refused to negotiate. As a result, we can expect a continuance of unspeakable living conditions in Gaza even after this pullout.
  • Finally, after the pullout, expect a terrifying struggle between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas over Gaza. It might start to look like civil war over there.
Hopefully, after the pullout, the US, EU, UN, and Russia will prod Israel to continue to uphold its part of the Road Map to Peace, and this might kick-start a peace process. But, sadly, the likelihood is that the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza strip will make it to 40 years old.


IMPORTANT BLOG CONTROVERSY: My previous rant about Israeli settlers and their annoying orange bracelets has sparked quite a firestorm here on the blog. Check it out and feel free to weigh in.

2 Responses to “Twenty Days”

  1. # Bob

    two things

    1. i find it interesting that you say, "As is usual, expect lots of images in the US media of Palestinians with guns, and very few of Palestinians suffering as the result of the huge Israeli attacks," when your own quasi research shows that thus far israelis are just as likely to be depicted carrying guns as palestinians are (the 1 picture difference is negligible, especially in a sample this small) in US media. also, please notice that palestinians are way ahead in being pictured suffering at the hands of israelis (10-3). all this despite, a greater lack of coverage of palestinian deaths than israeli deaths (16-1). any comments on your preliminary findings and how they don't match up to your predictions?

    2. you've posted your last reply to trebnbkqzzlr twice. you need to delete that last comment as it makes the comment thread look way longer than it actually is.  

  2. # Erik

    Good points, Bob, and I like the new profile photo. You've never looked better.

    1. I'll admit that my preliminary findings do not support my claims here, but -- 1) they're preliminary and 2) they only take into account articles that deal with violent killings, not all articles on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. And, I'll point out that there has been only one large-scale Israeli attack so far this year and only two (?) suicide bombings, so you're right when you say our sample size is too small. I'll be happy to retract my comments about the usual behavior of the US media on this topic if my final results (due in January 2006) don't support them.

    2. Thanks -- problem taken care of.

    3. There's more on that controversy coming soon -- I've had lenghty email discussions with another Important Blog Reader, and I have permission to post them all here at the blog, so people get ready.  

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